The dominant market story of recent weeks has been the rise in US government bond yields and the implications for asset markets and policy makers. Longer-dated government yields have been gradually rising from a low base since the middle of last year, reflective of recovering growth and inflation prospects. However, […]
After starting the year on a firm footing, volatility in global equity markets picked up sharply in the final week of January. The move lower in equity markets was sparked by extraordinary retail investor buying, of stocks unfancied by hedge funds and institutional investors who had previously sold (shorted) the […]
Global equities started the year in the same bullish manner that drove markets to record highs at the end of 2020. European indices added another 2.0% throughout the first three weeks of the year, marginally outperforming the US, with financials and pharmaceuticals gaining as tech lagged. Investor sentiment continues to […]
2020 will forever be remembered as the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to the most severe economic contraction in almost 100 years. In addition to COVID-19, 2020 was also memorable for other developments: As the world ground to a halt in March, policy responses were similarly unprecedented in […]
Equity markets notched their best performance on record in November as investors cheered three, separate, COVID-19 vaccines which posted pleasing results in late-stage trials. Market participants were quick to price in a sharper economic recovery, with monetary and fiscal policy remaining ultra-easy and the vaccine providing hope for a quicker […]
US ELECTIONS WHAT HAS HAPPENED (IN CASE YOU HAVE BEEN LIVING UNDER A ROCK)? Joe Biden has won the US presidential election. The Senate will probably stay in Republican hands (all eyes are on Georgia for the results of the runoff in January). Biden had an ambitious agenda with regards […]
Likely political makeup of Washington: Election outcome remains too close to call Key features: The failure of either party to get a clean sweep will hamper new policy initiatives If President Trump stays in power, basic policy agenda will remain as it has been Fiscal loosening will still be on […]
Risk assets ended October on the back foot, weighed down by news of renewed nationwide COVID-19 lockdowns across Europe and pre-US election jitters. Equity benchmarks in the developed world fell, led by weakness in Europe and the UK, however, emerging market stocks ended the month higher. US Treasuries and corporate […]
The release of this outlook coincides with the 6-month anniversary of when the UK first entered lockdown. As households and companies adjust to this COVID-19 dominated era, so must investors. One of the main conclusions is that the combination of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) is the highest that […]