As we passed the one-year mark from the onset of COVID-19, business activity is recovering from lockdowns amidst a progressive rollout of vaccines. In combination with fiscal stimulus, the gradual reopening of economies threatens to push global output above potential levels, triggering inflation. A look back at the late 1960s […]
Vaccine deployment is beginning to allow pent-up demand in service industries to materialise, but with notable differences across countries and sectors. The recent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases may be partially explained by higher global mobility, as some policymakers are prepared to loosen restrictions as long as cases […]
2020 will forever be remembered as the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to the most severe economic contraction in almost 100 years. In addition to COVID-19, 2020 was also memorable for other developments: As the world ground to a halt in March, policy responses were similarly unprecedented in […]
The release of this outlook coincides with the 6-month anniversary of when the UK first entered lockdown. As households and companies adjust to this COVID-19 dominated era, so must investors. One of the main conclusions is that the combination of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) is the highest that […]
Financial markets have rallied since April, with investors growing more confident that economies will turn around quickly from the fallout caused by the pandemic. Their optimism has increased in recent weeks as various countries have started to ease lock-down restrictions and tentative signs of stabilisation have emerged. Daily activity trackers […]
The nature of the economic shock experienced in recent weeks is unparalleled, with governments driving economies into recession in order to deal with a public health emergency. The impact on markets has been equally severe and despite some more recent relief for asset prices, a great deal of uncertainty remains, […]
Looking back, 2019 will be remembered as the year when major central banks staged a significant turnaround in monetary stance. The easing was precipitated by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish pivot in January, and since then we have seen both the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) loosening financial […]